FIBA Women's World Cup 2026 Odds: What teams are most likely to make it to the final?

The 2026 FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup has reached the point where the number of possible finalists is shrinking rapidly, and the latest odds provide a strong indication of which teams are considered most likely to make it all the way to Sunday's championship game.

Team USA entered the tournament as the clear favorite and remains in that position despite a tougher-than-expected group-stage game against Italy. The Americans finished first in Group D and moved directly into the quarterfinals, where they faced Hungary on Thursday.

The market has continued to show enormous confidence in the United States. Polymarket's live basketball markets had USA trading at around 99% to beat Hungary, illustrating just how heavily the market favored Kara Lawson's team in the quarterfinal matchup.

Traditional sportsbook markets tell a similar story. BetMGM listed the United States at 1.20 to win the tournament, equivalent to an implied probability of roughly 83% before accounting for the bookmaker's margin. France was next at 7.00, followed by Belgium at 15.00 and Spain at 21.00.

That gap demonstrates just how much the betting market still respects the Americans, even with a roster that looks different from previous championship-winning teams.

The USA also has history on its side. The Americans had not lost a game at a major international tournament since the 2006 World Cup before this year's competition, and they are pursuing a fifth consecutive World Cup championship.

There were some reasons for doubt during the group stage. The United States defeated China 94-61 and Czechia 105-64, but Italy pushed the Americans much harder in a 55-52 game. That narrow victory raised questions about whether the new-look USA team could maintain its usual dominance against the world's best teams.

Those concerns appeared to disappear in the quarterfinals.

The Americans defeated Hungary 108-56, producing their largest winning margin of the tournament. Every USA player scored, while Napheesa Collier led the way with 19 points. Caitlin Clark added 10 points and nine assists, while the United States shot 58.8% from the field and recorded 31 assists.

France and Belgium are the biggest threats to Team USA

France has arguably done the most to challenge America's status as the unquestioned favorite.

FIBA moved France into the No. 1 position in its latest power rankings ahead of the knockout rounds, with the United States dropping to second. The French team had dominated the preliminary stage, winning its games by an average of 43 points.

France is also stacked with WNBA-level talent, including Gabby Williams, Dominique Malonga, Marine Johannès and Janelle Salaün . Williams has been one of the tournament's outstanding players, averaging 18.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.7 steals per game.

The French also have recent experience against the Americans. At the 2024 Olympics, France came within a single point of forcing overtime in the gold-medal game. That experience makes a potential rematch particularly intriguing.

Belgium is another team that cannot be overlooked.

Led by Emma Meesseman , Belgium went undefeated in group play and has established itself as a genuine contender rather than simply an outsider capable of producing one upset.

Meesseman has averaged 18.3 points, eight rebounds and 5.3 assists, making her one of the tournament's most complete players.

The market reflected Belgium's strength heading into the quarterfinals, with Polymarket pricing the Belgian team at roughly 71% against Germany.

Spain is another serious possibility, although its route to the final is considerably more difficult to assess.

The Spanish reached the quarterfinal stage after finishing first in their group, but their potential semifinal path puts them on course for a meeting with the United States if both teams continue winning.

The tournament bracket is therefore crucial when considering the finalist odds. The USA's semifinal opponent will come from the Spain-Australia side of the bracket, while France and Belgium are positioned on the opposite half.

FIBA's official quarterfinal schedule confirms USA-Hungary, China-France, Belgium-Germany and Spain-Australia as the four matchups.

The latest sportsbook prices also offer an indication of the most likely final combinations. BetMGM listed France and USA as the leading finalist pairing at 1.65, while Belgium and USA was priced at 5.00.

That makes a USA-France final the market's clearest scenario, with USA-Belgium the next particularly interesting possibility.

Of course, odds are not guarantees. They represent the market's assessment of probability and can change quickly after injuries, upsets and individual performances.

For now, however, the picture is relatively clear: Team USA remains the team to beat, France has become its most credible challenger, and Belgium is increasingly looking like the dark horse capable of reaching the gold-medal game.