NBA win total projections: Which teams are expected to win the most and the fewest games in 2026-27?
Six of the top 10 teams with the most projected wins are from the Eastern Conference, and four from the Western.
The 2026-27 NBA season starts in less than 20 days, and the first preseason game is already tonight in Quebec, with the Toronto Raptors hosting the Miami Heat . Both are expected to fight for a direct playoff spot in a stacked Eastern Conference after landing big veterans.
Miami now has two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo . Toronto brought back Kawhi Leonard , who in his lone 2019 season there won the championship against the Warriors.
The Warriors are the other side of that story. Stephen Curry’s team is projected at 38.5 wins , among the worst 10 in the league, and a lot of that is two things.
They did not add a top player, and they will be without their second-best player, Jimmy Butler , until early 2027. The other is the West, where the two teams projected for the most wins in the league live.
Spurs and Thunder Lead NBA Win Total Projections Above 60
With the season this close, the win totals are out, the over/under the betting market is hanging on every team. Four of the higher marks sit in the West and six in the East, but the only two teams expected to clear 60 wins are both out West: the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder .
They had the two best records last season, met in the Western Conference finals , and open the year against each other on opening night.
Behind them, six teams are on the 50-win line or better . Three of them share the Atlantic : the champion New York Knicks at 53 , the Philadelphia 76ers at 52.5 and the Boston Celtics at 51 , a group that will see each other at least four times.
The Rockets (50.5) , Nuggets (50) and last year’s East No. 1 Pistons (50) are the other three in that range. The Nuggets number is one I would take. The Cavaliers and Raptors at 49.5 round out the top 10.
Kings, Nets and Bucks Sit at the Bottom of the 2026-27 Win Totals
The other end is the teams expected to take the hits. The Sacramento Kings lead that list at 23 wins , barely clearing 20. The Brooklyn Nets at 24.5 are the East team the market trusts least, then the Bucks at 28.5, who are going to feel Giannis leaving.
The new Clippers , without Leonard and with Brandon Ingram out for the first stretch, are projected at 29, one fewer than the Grizzlies , who complete that bottom five.
It is a long season and these are just the lines. They are still the cleanest read on who is supposed to be good, who is supposed to struggle, and which over/under is worth an argument before the first real tip.
