Why the Thunder are the NBA’s No. 1 preseason favorite and built to beat anyone
They have continuity, defensive versatility and enough talent around their stars to create problems for the rest of the league
The Oklahoma City Thunder enter the new NBA season with something every contender wants and very few teams can claim: a roster capable of answering almost any question a playoff opponent can ask. That's why the Thunder sit at No. 1 in the preseason rankings. Oklahoma City enters training camp as the clear favorite after falling to San Antonio in seven games last postseason, but the loss hasn't diminished the belief that this is still the team with perhaps the most complete championship formula in the NBA.
If anything, the defeat provided another lesson for a young team that already knows what it takes to win at the highest level. The Thunder have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander , the centerpiece of their offense. They have Chet Holmgren , whose health could determine just how high their ceiling goes.
They have continuity, defensive versatility and enough talent around their stars to create problems for virtually every type of opponent. And in a Western Conference that includes a rising Spurs team led by Victor Wembanyama, that's no small advantage.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gives OKC a playoff closer
The most obvious reason to believe in Oklahoma City starts with Gilgeous-Alexander. Playoff basketball eventually becomes a series of possessions in which somebody has to create a good shot when the offense breaks down. The Thunder have that player.
Gilgeous-Alexander gives Oklahoma City an elite isolation scorer who can attack the rim, create space in the midrange and punish defenses that switch or overcommit. His ability to control the tempo of a game also gives the Thunder something particularly valuable in the postseason: a player who doesn't need a perfect offensive environment to produce.
That's important because playoff defenses are designed to take away what teams do best. If an opponent tries to eliminate the Thunder's transition game, Oklahoma City can execute in the half court. If defenses collapse on Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder have capable shooters and playmakers around him. And if the game comes down to the final five minutes, OKC has a superstar who can manufacture offense.
Chet Holmgren could determine the ceiling
The biggest question surrounding the Thunder isn't talent. It's health. Chet Holmgren's availability is one of the most important storylines entering camp. When healthy, Holmgren gives Oklahoma City a unique two-way weapon. His length changes the geometry of the floor on both ends, while his ability to stretch defenses creates additional room for Gilgeous-Alexander.
Defensively, he can protect the rim without forcing the Thunder to sacrifice mobility. That combination matters enormously in the playoffs. Against a traditional big, Holmgren can pull the opposing center away from the basket. Against a smaller lineup, his size can become a major advantage around the rim.
The Thunder don't need him to carry the offense. They need him to be healthy and consistently available. If that happens, Oklahoma City's best lineup becomes extremely difficult to match.
The Thunder can win in different ways
Championship teams rarely survive four playoff rounds by playing only one style. Oklahoma City has enough versatility to win games in several ways. The Thunder can play fast. They can attack mismatches. They can create turnovers and turn defense into offense. They can space the floor around Gilgeous-Alexander. And they have enough length to make life difficult for opposing scorers.
That becomes particularly important when considering potential opponents from the Eastern Conference . A series against a bigger, more physical team would present different challenges than a matchup against a perimeter-oriented Western Conference opponent.
But Oklahoma City's roster construction gives it options. The Thunder aren't dependent on one matchup or one offensive concept. Being the preseason No. 1 team doesn't mean Oklahoma City has a clear path to another championship.
The Spurs might have something to say about that. San Antonio , fresh off a championship run behind Wembanyama, enters the season with arguably the highest ceiling in the league. The fact that some rankings have flipped the Spurs and Thunder entirely demonstrates how little separation there may be between the two teams.
Wembanyama represents perhaps the most difficult individual matchup in basketball because of his combination of size, skill and defensive range. The Thunder already know how difficult San Antonio can be after their seven-game postseason battle. That experience could ultimately help them.
