Which teams are most likely to make it to the WNBA Finals 2026? Predictions and odds for the Semifinals

The 2026 WNBA playoffs have reached the semifinal stage, and four very different teams remain in contention for the championship.

The Atlanta Dream , New York Liberty , Golden State Valkyries and Las Vegas Aces all survived the opening round, setting up two best-of-five series with a place in the WNBA Finals at stake.

The semifinals began Sunday, October 4, with Atlanta hosting New York and Golden State welcoming Las Vegas.

There was already plenty of intrigue before the first semifinal games. New York entered the round as the No. 8 seed after producing one of the biggest upsets in WNBA playoff history, sweeping the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx .

The Liberty's reward was a matchup with a Dream team that finished fourth in the regular season and had swept Washington in the opening round.

The other series matched the No. 2 Valkyries against the No. 3 Aces . Golden State reached the semifinals after overcoming Dallas in a three-game first-round series, while Las Vegas eliminated the Indiana Fever in three games.

Before the semifinals began, CBS Sports' experts largely backed the more experienced teams. Both Lindsay Gibbs and Jack Maloney selected New York to beat Atlanta, although their predicted series lengths differed.

Gibbs picked the Liberty in five games, while Maloney predicted a four-game victory for New York.

CBS Sports' panel was also united on the other side of the bracket, with both experts predicting the defending champion Aces would eliminate Golden State in four games.

Those predictions, however, immediately faced a serious challenge.

Game 1 has already changed the outlook

Atlanta made the first statement of the semifinal round by beating New York 92-82 on Sunday, taking a 1-0 series lead. Golden State then produced an even bigger surprise, beating the defending champion Aces 71-60 to move ahead 1-0.

The Valkyries ' victory was particularly significant because Las Vegas had swept the regular-season series between the teams. Golden State nevertheless dominated the opening game defensively, with Gabby Williams leading the way with 25 points, 11 rebounds and five assists.

The Valkyries also won the offensive rebounding battle 17-2, while A'ja Wilson scored 24 points but found little help around her.

That result makes the Aces' path considerably more difficult than the pre-series predictions suggested. Las Vegas still possesses the experience of a championship-winning core, with Wilson joined by Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray, but it now needs to win on the road in Game 2 to level the series.

Atlanta's win also gives the Dream an important advantage over a Liberty team that many analysts expected to reach the Finals.

New York's postseason run remains dangerous because of Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones , but Atlanta's size, athleticism and defensive pressure have already shown why it was capable of challenging the eighth seed.

The betting market also illustrates how quickly the picture has shifted. Before the semifinals, Las Vegas was listed around +200 to win the championship by BetMGM, making the Aces the favorite among the four remaining teams.

Golden State was around +265 to reach the Finals, with Atlanta at +475 and New York at +500 in the same market.

Those numbers should be treated as a snapshot rather than a guarantee, particularly because Game 1 has already changed the series landscape.

Current markets now have the four semifinalists clustered much more closely, with recent odds showing New York, Las Vegas, Golden State and Atlanta all within a relatively narrow range for the championship.

For New York, the challenge is now straightforward: overcome Atlanta's home-court advantage and prevent the Dream from turning their Game 1 victory into a commanding series lead.

The schedule gives all four teams several days before Game 2. The Liberty and Dream meet again Wednesday, October 7, while the Valkyries and Aces also resume their series that night. If either matchup reaches a deciding Game 5, it will be played October 14.

The Finals are scheduled to begin October 17, meaning there is still plenty of basketball left before either semifinal winner can start thinking about the championship.

Based on the original predictions, New York and Las Vegas were the teams most commonly expected to emerge. After Game 1, however, Atlanta and Golden State have made those forecasts considerably less comfortable.

The Aces still have the pedigree of defending champions, while the Liberty have already shown they can overturn expectations.

But with both underdogs trailing their respective series and the Valkyries holding a 1-0 lead over Las Vegas, the 2026 WNBA Finals race is now far more open than it appeared before the semifinals tipped off.