AI Already Knows Who Will Win LaLiga: Here’s How Real Madrid and Barcelona Stand After Seven Matchdays
Opta’s model still lists Barcelona as the top contender for the title and lowers Real Madrid’s chances following José Mourinho’s team’s loss to Atlético Madrid.
B arcelona remains the top contender to win LaLiga 2026/27 according to Opta’s projections. The Blaugrana have seven wins in the first seven matchdays, have 21 points, and the model assigns them a 75.59% chance of winning the championship again.
The 2-1 loss to Atlético Madrid at the Metropolitano significantly altered Real Madrid’s projection . The team led by José Mourinho now has 15 points, and according to the model, its chances of winning the title have dropped from 31%—where they stood before the start of the season—to 16.48% .
Barcelona and Real Madrid, Separated by Six Points
The gap between the two teams is also reflected in the projected points total at the end of the season. Opta estimates that Barcelona would finish with 87.25 points , while Real Madrid would end with 76.40. Atlético Madrid, currently ahead of Real Madrid in the standings, ranks third in the simulation with an expected 70.37 points.
Barcelona has reached this milestone after a perfect start to the season. Hansi Flick’s team defeated Sevilla 3-1 on Matchday 7 and has scored 31 goals in the league so far—an offensive output that accounts for much of the gap between them and Real Madrid.
Atlético also sits ahead of Real Madrid in the standings
The victory in the derby allowed Atlético to reach 16 points and move ahead of Real Madrid. Diego Simeone’s team has three consecutive wins, and Opta gives them a 5.65% chance of finishing as champions.
Real Betis also ranks among the teams with a shot at winning the championship. The Green-and-Whites have 16 points and sit in fourth place in the projections, with a 1.85% chance of winning LaLiga.
Barcelona’s Pace Points to a Record-Breaking Season
The Blaugrana’s statistics also highlight the magnitude of their start to the season. With 31 goals in seven matches , they are averaging 4.43 per game. If they maintain that pace throughout the season, they would finish with a total far exceeding LaLiga’s typical scoring records. The record for points in a single season is 100, set by Real Madrid in 2011–12 and by Barcelona in 2012–13.
For Real Madrid, the priority now is to regain ground after their setback at the Metropolitano. Although the Opta model still ranks them as the second-favorite to win the title, they are now six points behind Barcelona, and their projected odds have dropped significantly compared to the start of the season.
