Awaiting the sentence of the century: from a fine to expulsion from the Premier

English football is holding its breath ahead of what is expected to be the sentence of the century in British sport . Although the verdict in the trial against Manchester City is not yet public, The Athletic's bombshell in mid-afternoon on Friday shook the foundations of the Premier League : "Manchester City has been found guilty on virtually all the charges related to breaches of the Premier League's financial regulations."

Immediately, the minds of football fans (especially those of Manchester City) turn to the punishment . What is going to happen to Manchester City now? That is the big doubt, the big question that the Independent Commission examining the case must resolve in the coming days and that will change (or not) the landscape of English football.

As this is such a massive case ( it is said that City will be found guilty on 114 of the 115 charges they were accused of ), there are no precedents or many clues as to what the tribunal may rule, although the English media have over these years of proceedings put forward several options about what could happen next .

Making it clear that this is speculative territory, the possible sanctions fall into three main pillars: points deduction, financial penalties or, the harshest of all, expulsion from the Premier League or from the English football system .

The clubs expect a financial penalty

A financial sanction would be the lightest punishment, although the amount could still be equally severe . According to TeamTalk, citing an internal source from a Premier League club, this would be the sentence that the rest of the clubs believe will ultimately be imposed . "Fans around the world will be crying out and perhaps hoping for relegation and major points deductions, but from what we are hearing as a club, at this moment we expect a fine," that source says.

' Kieran Maguire, an expert in the world of football finance , explained on the BBC what the "ideal" sanction for the Etihad side would be: "If Manchester City has been found guilty, they would be delighted if they were only given a fine. But I hope other clubs and most commentators anticipate some kind of points deduction, if not something worse. There could be a long series of legal actions from clubs that believe they were harmed during the period in which Manchester City breached the rules".'

In the only case that might seem similar, Chelsea were sanctioned this summer with a ten-million-pound fine and a ban on signing players for two transfer windows (although this punishment was suspended) for breaches stemming from the Roman Abramovich era. However, the case is not comparable since it was the club’s new blue ownership that self-reported and cooperated with the Premier in the investigation. City have always denied the charges.

A points deduction... like a relegation

As for the points deduction, there are two approaches: a sanction significant enough to cause the club’s direct relegation or to defer that sanction over several seasons , which would complicate its participation in the Champions League for some years.

Other clubs such as Everton or Nottingham Forest have suffered points deductions for issues related to the Premier's financial fair play, but the scale of City's case suggests an unusual number of points that could, indeed, lead to the club's immediate relegation.

Expulsion from the Premier... or from the English football system

A more extreme case, though possible, is that of the direct expulsion of the Manchester club from the Premier League. The Independent Commission could rule that the seriousness of the charges and their number warrant an exemplary sanction and the expulsion of City is a scenario that is not ruled out despite the implications it would have for sponsorships, Premier League television contracts and other economic items for English clubs.

There are even those who are calling for that expulsion not to be limited to the Premier League and for Manchester City to be excluded from the EFL (English Football League) system , that is, for the club to be relegated below League Two, which is the fourth tier of English football, and for City to be forced to restart its history in the National League.

It is to be expected that the sentence will not reach those levels, but until the verdict is official and the punishment is known, speculation will remain open. And then there is the possible stripping of the titles won during that period (2009-2018), complaints from clubs that feel harmed... The case is close to being decided, but far from being closed.