Summer is saying goodbye to the U.S.: Here’s what fall will bring

Summer is slowly fading into the background, and the United States is getting ready for a change of season . September can still feel like an extension of the warmer months, but the calendar shows that fall is just around the corner.

When does fall begin in the United States?

Fall begins on Tuesday, September 22, 2026, marking the change of season that will bring new temperatures , different days and, little by little, the landscapes typically associated with this time of year.

But beyond putting away summer clothes or getting the sweaters back out, this transition also raises a much more practical question: what will the weather be like over the next few months?

The outlook for October, November and December points to significant differences across the country . In other words, not every American will have the same kind of fall ahead.

Temperatures could feel warmer across several regions

One of the main trends in the outlook points to above-average temperatures across much of the United States.

The West, the northern part of the country and regions east of the Mississippi River are among the areas showing a stronger tendency toward warmer-than-usual temperatures during these months.

That does not mean every day will feel the same or that cold weather will disappear. It is a broader seasonal outlook, so actual conditions can vary from week to week and from one city to another.

And while much of the map points toward a warmer-than-usual fall, the South presents a much less defined scenario.

Some Southern states still have an uncertain outlook

Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Colorado, Arkansas and Louisiana are among the regions where the probabilities appear more evenly balanced.

In these states, the outlook does not clearly favor warmer or colder temperatures than normal. As a result, residents could experience different conditions as the season progresses .

That difference is important because there is no single forecast for the entire United States. While some areas have a clearer climate signal, others still have several possible outcomes .

But temperatures won’t be the only change worth watching.

The South could see more rain this fall

When it comes to precipitation, the outlook becomes much clearer.

A trend toward above-average rainfall across much of the South is expected, in a stretch that extends from Southern California toward the eastern part of the country and reaches the Mid-Atlantic region. Florida is among the states showing a particularly strong signal for increased precipitation .

For people living in these areas, that could mean a fall with more rainy days than usual.

But while some regions may need to reach for their umbrellas more often, other parts of the country are pointing in the opposite direction.

The Pacific Northwest could have a drier fall

The contrast is more noticeable in the Pacific Northwest and part of the Great Lakes region , where models point toward drier-than-usual conditions.

And behind much of this outlook is a climate phenomenon that will be particularly important in the months ahead.

What does El Niño have to do with fall 2026?

The expected pattern for the season is connected to the development of El Niño, a climate phenomenon that can influence atmospheric patterns and the distribution of temperatures and precipitation.

According to NOAA, there is a greater than 90% chance that the event will reach a very strong intensity during the fall and winter of 2026-2027 . The projected scenario also has a 75% chance of matching or exceeding the intensity of some of the strongest events recorded since 1950.

One of the effects expected from this pattern is a shift in the jet stream, which helps explain why the outlook shows such noticeable differences from one region to another.