How much will your Social Security increase next year with the Trump Bump after the last estimate?
Current forecasts point towards 3.5% to 3.6% increase, but September inflation could still push benefits higher
The final number that will shape Social Security checks throughout 2027 is almost here, and current estimates suggest beneficiaries could receive their biggest cost-of-living adjustment in several years.
The Senior Citizens League and independent Social Security analyst Mary Johnson currently project a 3.5% COLA, while AARP has put its estimate slightly higher at 3.6%. At 3.5%, the average monthly Social Security benefit would rise by approximately $67.90, from $1,940.08 to about $2,007.98.
That estimate isn't locked in. September’s inflation data remains the final piece of the calculation, leaving open the possibility that next year’s increase comes in slightly higher.
Why 2027 Social Security increase could still grow
Social Security ’s annual COLA is determined using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W.
The Social Security Administration compares the average CPI-W reading from July through September with the equivalent period one year earlier. September’s figure therefore has the ability to move the final percentage.
President Donald Trump doesn't set the COLA, despite the increase sometimes being described as a “Trump bump.”
His administration’s economic policies can, however, influence some of the conditions feeding into inflation. Higher energy costs and tariffs have both been cited as factors capable of increasing prices for businesses and consumers.
TSCL executive director Shannon Benton said short-term changes remain the biggest variable heading into the announcement.
“The biggest thing we’re watching with the COLA announcement coming are short-term shocks to the economy that push inflation way up or down in the next 30 days,” Benton said.
Bigger COLA doesn't mean retirees are better off
A larger Social Security increase sounds like straightforward good news, but COLAs rise because living costs have already increased.
Beneficiaries absorb those higher prices before the adjustment reaches their checks in January. That means retirees dealing with more expensive fuel, groceries or healthcare now must wait months before benefits catch up.
There is also an ongoing debate over whether the CPI-W accurately reflects the spending patterns of older Americans, particularly their healthcare costs.
The Senior Citizens League found in its 2026 Senior Survey that 89% of older Americans believed that year’s COLA had failed to keep pace with inflation.
AARP has also highlighted the pressure higher prices are placing on household budgets. Survey data from the Nationwide Retirement Institute found that 74% of Social Security recipients had adjusted their finances because inflation was outpacing benefit increases.
The wait for the final figure will not last much longer. September’s Consumer Price Index report is scheduled for October 14, with the Social Security Administration expected to announce the official 2027 COLA shortly afterward.
A 3.5% increase remains the central estimate. If September inflation comes in stronger than expected, beneficiaries could see an even larger adjustment, although that would also reflect higher prices they are already paying.
