What is the Super El Niño 2026 Forecast and which states will be most affected?
California, Texas and the Southeast may turn stormier while much of the northern U.S. faces a milder winter
The weather pattern reshaping conditions across the Pacific is entering a more consequential phase, with NOAA now warning that El Niño is strengthening rapidly ahead of the 2026-27 winter.
The Climate Prediction Center said in its September 10 update that there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.
Sea-surface temperature anomalies in the key Niño 3.4 region had climbed to around 1.8 degrees Celsius above normal in August, while even larger anomalies were recorded farther east.
A very strong event is sometimes informally described as a “Super El Niño.” The label doesn't mean every affected area will experience extreme weather, but stronger events generally increase the odds that familiar El Niño patterns will emerge.
That could make the next several months particularly important across the United States.
Southern states face clearest signal for wetter winter
El Niño changes the atmosphere by warming the tropical Pacific and shifting the jet stream southward.
NOAA says that shift typically directs more winter storms across the southern United States, increasing the chances of wetter and sometimes cooler conditions from California through the Gulf Coast and into parts of the Southeast.
That puts California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Florida among the states most likely to experience noticeable changes if the traditional pattern develops.
California can face repeated Pacific storms during strong El Niño winters, while Texas and the Gulf Coast can see increased rainfall.
The Southeast, including Florida , also tends to be wetter than normal, potentially increasing flood risks where storms repeatedly track through the same areas.
Still, NOAA cautions against treating those tendencies as guarantees.
“Every El Niño is not the same; each one is unique with its own imprint on our weather,” National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said when the event developed earlier this year.
Northern states could see opposite effect
The northern half of the country often experiences a very different winter during El Niño .
The Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, northern Plains and Great Lakes typically tilt warmer and, in several areas, drier than average because the main storm track shifts south.
States including Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan could therefore see fewer prolonged cold outbreaks and less storminess than they would during a typical winter.
The Mountain West is less straightforward. Utah and Colorado can sit near the dividing line between the wetter southern storm track and drier northern pattern, making snowfall outcomes particularly dependent on exactly where individual systems travel.
El Niño usually exerts its strongest influence on U.S. weather during winter, meaning its most significant effects may still be months away.
What is already clear is that this is no ordinary event. The stronger it becomes, the greater the chance that millions of Americans will notice its fingerprints on the winter ahead.
