MLB Wild Card Series 2026 odds: Which team is more likely to make it to the Divisional Round?
Can the New York Yankees defeat the Boston Red Sox?
The 2026 MLB postseason begins Tuesday with four best-of-three Wild Card Series , putting eight teams within two wins of the Divisional Series , but how do the matchups compare entering October? The road to the World Series begins with four Wild Card clashes, each featuring a best-of-three format. The higher seed hosts all three potential games, giving the New York Yankees , Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres home-field advantage against their respective opponents.
The Yankees face the Red Sox in the American League , with New York holding the stronger position at a 60.2% probability of reaching the AL Divisional Round , whilst Boston has a 39.8% chance of advancing. The Red Sox finished the regular season strongly and have the pitching depth to make the series competitive, but the Yankees ' home-field advantage gives them the higher projected chance - especially if Aaron Judge returns. Meanwhile, the Astros and White Sox have one of the closest projected match-ups but Chicago are at a disadvantage, given a 42.9% chance of moving on, compared with 57.1% for Houston . The White Sox enter with an 84-78 record and an offense capable of producing in a short series. Houston finished 81-81 with one of the worst modern records to win a division, but captured the AL West pennant , with Yordan Alvarez providing a major threat.
The Braves have the best chance in the National League
The Braves have one of largest projected advantages among the four Wild Card matchups as Atlanta is given a 53.3% chance of eliminating the Phillies , compared with 46.7% for Philadelphia . The Braves finished 94-68 and enter with a division title, home-field advantage and Chris Sale anchoring the pitching staff. Their lineup also provides significant power, making Atlanta a difficult opponent in a short series. Philadelphia , however, has the frontline pitching to challenge Atlanta . Zack Wheeler , Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo give the visitors multiple options capable of changing a series with one dominant outing. The Padres have a 52.1% chance of advancing against the Cubs , who sit at 47.9% as San Diego finished 91-71 and brings a deep bullpen and star power led by Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill . Chicago went 89-73 but needs to improve its pitching. Across the four matchups, the projections point to the Yankees and Astros having the clearest statistical edge, while the Braves-Phillies and Cubs-Padres series are almost essentially toss-ups. Awaiting the winners of the Wild Card games are the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians in the American League , whilst the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers are already in the National League Divisional Series .
