From Cy Young-caliber dominance to a 3.91 ERA: Paul Skenes blames the World Baseball Classic for his inconsistent season

P aul Skenes entered 2026 as the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner, but the Pittsburgh Pirates ace has spent much of the season searching for an explanation for the velocity decline that changed his results. Skenes ' ERA has climbed to 3.91 from 1.97 whilst his four-seam fastball has also averaged 96.9mph this season, a notable drop from the 98.1mph that helped establish him as one of the MLB ’s most dominant pitchers.

And now he believes his participation for Team USA in the 2026 World Baseball Classic may have contributed to the problem as fans wonder why his standards have slipped, despite his youth. “There are a lot of other factors, so I don’t want to put everything on that. But I feel like that was kind of the root of it a little bit,” Skenes told Colin Beazley as the 24-year-old explained that the tournament disrupted the normal spring progression. He says he relies on this progression to build his pitching velocity to its peak, so rather than gradually increasing from the 97mph range toward 98-99 mph, he said his preparation was altered by the earlier competition. And that interruption became increasingly important as the season continued as Skenes never consistently reached the level he had shown during his Cy Young -winning campaign with the Pirates third in the NL Central . It’s clear that the drop in velocity has been closely connected to Skenes ' statistical regression as his WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched) has risen from 0.95 to 1.13, while his WAR has fallen from 7.6 in 2025 to 3.1 this season. At one point in August, he exited a start after only 65 pitches while averaging 95.7 mph with his fastball and acknowledged that he also held back at times earlier in the season, believing his velocity would eventually return as his body adjusted. “When you go outing to outing, you don’t really see the big picture sometimes,” Skenes told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “And I think looking back, I can kind of see it now. “Because early in the season, you can get away with stuff mechanically or you might not be moving perfectly but you’re fresh, and the velo is there because you’re feeling good.”

Skenes aims to rebound over MLB offseason

The right-hander eventually began making mechanical adjustments in an effort to recover his previous form as he moved away from his usual crossfire delivery and experimented with stepping more directly toward the plate. Those changes occasionally produced better velocity, but Skenes could not sustain the improvement from one start to another and ultimately returned to his familiar tried-and-tested. And whilst he is not claiming the World Baseball Classic was solely responsible for his struggles, his comments suggest the tournament altered the preparation cycle he believes is important to building and maintaining his velocity. And with the Pirates now mathematically eliminated from postseason contention, Skenes has one scheduled start remaining before he turns his attention toward the offseason. Over the months off, his priority will be restoring the preparation and delivery that previously allowed him to maintain elite velocity over a full major league season to be at his best for Pittsburgh once again.