Is Arch Manning leaving Texas? A $400 million NFL contract is too big to wait for
A massive NFL payday awaits, but Manning appears focused on proving himself in Austin first
Arch Manning’s future at Texas is already being discussed in terms of one enormous question: will the star quarterback finally make the jump to the NFL after the 2026 season?
Former NFL tight end Shannon Sharpe believes Manning should do exactly that. During an episode of Nightcap, Sharpe argued that there’s little reason for the quarterback to postpone his professional career when rookie salaries continue reaching unprecedented levels.
“You think about it: what Mendoza signed for- about $60 million, fully guaranteed. He’d be in line for a contract, $350, $400 million. I’m not delaying getting to the bag any longer than I have to,” said Sharpe .
It’s an argument that’s difficult to dismiss from a financial perspective. Manning was already regarded as a potential top pick before choosing to remain at Texas rather than enter the 2026 NFL Draft. However, Manning’s own explanation for that decision suggests money isn’t what’s driving his career choices.
When Manning announced that he’d return to Austin, he emphasized his development and desire to continue playing college football. He felt he’d made significant progress during the previous season and believed there was still more for him to accomplish at Texas.
That decision meant passing on the opportunity to secure a lucrative rookie contract one year earlier. Yet Manning appeared comfortable with that sacrifice, choosing additional development over an immediate NFL payday.
His grandfather, Pro Football Hall of Fame quarterback Archie Manning, also briefly fueled speculation about his grandson’s plans when he suggested Arch intended to stay in college until he was finished. Arch later clarified that the comments weren't his own decision and said his grandfather had apologized.
Manning’s 2026 start could change everything
If Manning wants to leave Texas after this season, he’s already given NFL scouts plenty to watch. The Longhorns opened their 2026 campaign with a dominant 59-7 victory over Texas State, and Manning immediately looked comfortable in the revamped offense.
The quarterback completed 20 of 27 attempts for 305 yards, four touchdowns and one interception before being pulled with 5:50 remaining in the third quarter. It was only the fourth four-touchdown performance of his Texas career.
One of the biggest storylines was Manning’s instant connection with transfer receiver Cam Coleman Jr. The former Auburn standout caught three passes for 70 yards and two touchdowns. Their first score came on a six-yard touchdown in the opening quarter, while their second connection covered 20 yards in the third.
The second touchdown was particularly encouraging because Manning delivered the ball into a tight window after having previously been intercepted while attempting a similar throw into heavy coverage.
The Texas offense will face a dramatically tougher test next. The Longhorns are set to host No. 1 Ohio State, giving Manning an early opportunity to demonstrate his development against elite competition.
The possibility of a $400 million future makes waiting difficult to justify for Sharpe , but Manning has already shown that he isn't simply chasing the biggest check available. He appears determined to develop on his own timeline and finish his work at Texas.
If 2026 proves to be his final college season, though, the NFL and a potentially historic contract could be waiting.
