Miami's Mensah makes his Heisman move as Arch Manning's season falls short of hype

Darian Mensah is making his move at the right time, and the rest of the Heisman Trophy field is beginning to feel the pressure. The Miami Hurricanes quarterback strengthened his case Saturday night, throwing three touchdown passes without an interception in a 38-35 road victory over North Carolina. His performance helped propel him past Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith as the betting favorite for the 2026 Heisman Trophy, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Mensah completed 22 of 29 passes for 274 yards, delivering an efficient performance in a game Miami had to win through the final moments. Hurricanes wide receiver Malachi Toney also made his case for national recognition, catching seven passes for 75 yards and two touchdowns.

The victory was another opportunity to showcase an offense with two players capable of generating Heisman buzz. It was also a major step for Mensah t oward becoming the leading candidate for college football's most prestigious individual award.

Arch Manning's Heisman hopes are fading

Manning entered the 2026 season with enormous expectations. As the full-time starting quarterback at Texas , he had the opportunity to build on his pedigree and establish himself as one of college football's defining players. Instead, his season has struggled to match the hype.

The Heisman race is rarely decided by preseason predictions, and Manning's early status as a favorite has done little to protect him from the consequences of an uneven campaign. Quarterbacks typically need a combination of impressive individual statistics, signature victories and sustained consistency to remain in contention deep into November.

With Mensah now leading the betting market, Manning has a narrowing window to change the conversation. He needs a strong finish, standout performances against quality opponents and results that make voters reconsider a race that is increasingly moving in another direction.

That does not make a comeback impossible. The final stretch of the college football season can dramatically reshape the field. But Manning needs more than a familiar name and a highly anticipated season to regain his footing. He needs performances that separate him from the competition.

Jeremiah Smith loses ground after Ohio State upset

Smith had been the betting favorite heading into Ohio State's Saturday evening matchup against USC, with the Buckeyes wide receiver carrying the hopes of becoming the first non-quarterback to win the Heisman since 1991. Then the Trojans delivered a 30-18 upset.

Smith still produced a respectable individual performance, catching 10 passes for 83 yards and a touchdown from backup quarterback Luke Fahey. But Ohio State's defeat dropped the Buckeyes to 6-2 , undermining the team's momentum and weakening Smith's position in the award race.

The challenge for a wide receiver is already substantial. Quarterbacks generally dominate Heisman voting because they touch the ball on nearly every offensive possession and have a direct role in shaping their teams' results. A non-quarterback candidate often needs extraordinary production and a winning team to overcome that disadvantage.

Smith remains a gifted playmaker, and one loss does not erase his accomplishments. But the upset created an opening for a quarterback to take control of the betting market.

Dante Moore's absence reshapes the field

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore was another player who entered the season among the leading candidates. His Heisman hopes, however, have been ended by a concussion that has ruled him out for the remainder of the season.

Moore's absence removes another prominent quarterback from the race and further concentrates attention on the players still capable of building a late-season résumé.

Mensah now has an opportunity to strengthen his position with every remaining game. His performance against North Carolina demonstrated the kind of efficiency voters tend to reward: a high completion rate, multiple touchdown passes and no turnovers in a narrow victory.

He also has an advantage in Toney, whose production gives Miami another dangerous weapon and could help the Hurricanes remain in the national spotlight. Still, the race is not over. Heisman odds can shift from week to week, and the final verdict will depend on what the leading candidates accomplish between now and the end of the regular season.