Can Patrick Mahomes break his worst career trend to lead Chiefs back to the playoffs?
Patrick Mahomes has dominated the NFL for years, but one unexpected trend could be standing between the Chiefs and a playoff return.
The recent history of the Kansas City Chiefs could take a dramatic turn in 2026. After a season in which they went from winning 15 games to missing the playoffs with just six victories , Patrick Mahomes ’ team enters the new campaign as one of the candidates to make the biggest turnaround in the NFL, as long as they get the best version of their star quarterback.
ESPN analyst Bill Barnwell listed Kansas City among the NFL teams with the greatest potential for improvement and identified a key reason behind the team’s unexpected collapse in 2025: games decided by small margins.
In 2024, the Chiefs finished with a historic 10-0 record in games decided by seven points or fewer , but their fortune changed dramatically a year later, when they went 1-9 in those situations. According to Barnwell, the difference of 18 wins in close games from one season to the next represents the biggest swing of its kind in NFL history.
The numbers also suggest that Kansas City was not as poor as its final 6-11 record indicated .
Mahomes and the Chiefs hope to regain their dominance in close games
Before their downfall in 2025, Kansas City was coming off a historic season. In 2024, they finished with a +59 point differential , posted a 15-2 record , and reached their third consecutive Super Bowl.
Even in 2025, before Patrick Mahomes suffered a torn ACL and LCL in his left knee against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 15, the Chiefs had outscored opponents by 60 points and ranked eighth in DVOA , the same position they held at the end of the previous regular season.
The problem came in the biggest moments
Mahomes entered 2025 with an impressive 43-17 career record in one-score games, but this time Kansas City could not replicate that winning formula. Before his injury, the Chiefs went 1-7 in one-score games with Mahomes as the starter .
For Barnwell, simply returning to an average level in those situations could completely change the outlook.
“Winning half of such games would get the Chiefs back into the playoffs,” Barnwell wrote. “And winning about 65% of the time — which is Mahomes’ career rate in games decided by seven points or fewer — might push Kansas City back atop the AFC West.”
That would represent a remarkable transformation for a franchise that went from appearing in three straight Super Bowls to missing the postseason.
Kansas City made moves to return to championship contention
The Chiefs’ comeback attempt is not without questions, starting with their star quarterback.
Mahomes will enter the 2026 season after the most significant injury of his NFL career and surgery on his left knee. The biggest question will be whether he can maintain his ability to escape pressure and create plays outside the pocket, especially early in the season.
Kansas City also revamped several pieces in its secondary. Trent McDuffie was traded to the Los Angeles Rams, Jaylen Watson signed with the same team in free agency, and Bryan Cook joined the Cincinnati Bengals.
To replace them, the Chiefs selected cornerback Mansoor Delane in the Top 10 of the Draft and also brought L’Jarius Sneed back to Kansas City.
The offense received upgrades as well. Running back Kenneth Walker III arrived to fix a rushing attack that ranked last in the league in explosive play rate. Meanwhile, the defensive front added Khyiris Tonga , Peter Woods, and R Mason Thomas , while Josh Simmons is expected to become a key piece at left tackle.
The road back won’t be easy
Although the Chiefs are looking to return to the NFL’s elite, their schedule will not be simple.
Kansas City will face teams from the AFC East and NFC West, including road matchups against the Buffalo Bills , Los Angeles Rams , and Seattle Seahawks . Additionally, after finishing third in their division, they will also travel to face the Cincinnati Bengals .
ESPN’s Football Power Index projects a middle-of-the-pack schedule for the Chiefs, ranking it as the 14th easiest in the NFL.
Despite the challenges, Barnwell believes Kansas City will bounce back.
“I don’t think there will be much pushback against the idea that the Chiefs will improve in 2026,” he wrote.
