A harsh reality check for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs: "The Chiefs' dynasty is over"

The Kansas City Chiefs have spent much of the Patrick Mahomes era making the idea of their decline seem almost impossible.

Now, after one of the worst seasons of the quarterback's career and a serious knee injury, former NFL star Rob Gronkowski believes the dynasty has reached its end.

The Chiefs entered the Mahomes era as one of the NFL's most consistent contenders, winning three Super Bowls between the 2019 and 2023 seasons and appearing in five of six Super Bowls.

Mahomes collected two regular-season MVP awards and three Super Bowl MVPs during that remarkable run. But 2025 delivered a dramatic reversal.

Kansas City finished 6-11, its first losing season since 2012, and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014. The Chiefs also surrendered their long-standing grip on the AFC West after winning nine consecutive division titles.

Gronkowski believes those results were not simply an unfortunate one-year setback.

“It’s over for sure,” he said on Up & Adams when asked whether the Chiefs dynasty stays if they lose this season.

“I kind of put them in the tier two bucket, okay? You know, I feel like they’re not tier one right now. I mean, Patrick Mahomes coming off of the injury, you know, he’s going to have to prove to everyone first that he’s still the elite quarterback that we all know him, you know, to be. … They have a mini dynasty, there’s no doubt about that. That is over.”

It is a particularly striking assessment because Mahomes ' Chiefs had become synonymous with postseason football.

From 2018 through 2024, Kansas City reached the AFC Championship Game in every season except one. The team won Super Bowl LIV, LVII and LVIII, while also reaching the championship game in 2018 and 2021 and the Super Bowl again in 2020 and 2024.

The 2025 collapse therefore represented far more than a minor dip in performance.

Patrick Mahomes' return is central to the Chiefs' chances

Mahomes ' injury made the situation even more complicated.

The quarterback suffered a torn ACL in the Chiefs' December loss to the Los Angeles Chargers , a result that simultaneously eliminated Kansas City from playoff contention.

The injury ended his season after 14 starts and left the franchise facing the biggest question of the Mahomes era: can he return at the same level?

Mahomes has spent the offseason working his way back and was fully cleared to participate in training camp. His target has been the September 14 season opener against the Denver Broncos , although the Chiefs have remained cautious about determining exactly when he will return to full game action.

That rehabilitation is crucial because Mahomes ' mobility has always been an important part of his game.

In 2025, before his injury, he averaged a career-best 30.1 rushing yards per game. His ability to escape pressure, extend plays and turn broken-down possessions into explosive gains has consistently separated him from other quarterbacks. Kansas City also needs significant improvement around him.

The 2025 Chiefs averaged only 21.3 points per game, ranking 21st in the NFL. Mahomes was sacked 34 times, while the offense struggled to consistently produce the explosive plays that had become a trademark of the Reid-Mahomes partnership.

Yet Mahomes himself does not appear interested in accepting the idea that Kansas City's best days are behind it.

“I think it’s just the bad taste that we had from last season,” said Mahomes during the Chiefs’ kickoff luncheon.

“It didn’t go the way we wanted to. Coach [Andy] Reid talked about that. But we learned from it, and we’ve gotten better. I’ve worked to get to this point right here to be ready to go for the season. Just as hungry as I am, just as hungry as everybody on this stage and everybody in this audience. We’re going to go out there with the mindset that we’re going to be a new version of the Chiefs, that goes up there and dominates the same way the old one did.”

That confidence has also been echoed outside the organization.

“I think a lot of people are sleeping on the Chiefs,” Mike Florio said on Pro Football Talk. “It’s easy to do that because we had Chiefs fatigue. I think we’re more quick to embrace the demise of the Chiefs because we’d gotten sick of the Chiefs… There was that sense that football fans had enough.”

That may ultimately be the most important question heading into 2026. Gronkowski sees the Chiefs as a team that has already slipped from the NFL's elite tier.

Florio believes the reaction may be exaggerated because fans became accustomed to Kansas City's dominance. There is evidence for both arguments.

The 6-11 record was unquestionably disastrous by the Chiefs ' standards. But Kansas City's previous success was so extraordinary that one poor season does not automatically erase everything that came before it.

Andy Reid remains the head coach. Mahomes remains the franchise quarterback. Travis Kelce returned for another season, and the organization has had an entire offseason to address the weaknesses that contributed to the collapse. That makes 2026 particularly significant.

If Mahomes returns healthy and Kansas City immediately returns to contention, Gronkowski's "It’s over for sure" prediction could look premature.

But if the Chiefs struggle again, questions about whether their dynasty has genuinely ended will become much harder to dismiss.

The New England Patriots provide the obvious historical comparison. Their dynasty eventually ended after years of sustained success when Tom Brady moved on, demonstrating how quickly an elite roster can transition from dominant to ordinary. Kansas City is now trying to avoid the same fate.

For Chiefs Kingdom, however, surrendering before Mahomes gets another opportunity would be premature. The quarterback has already spent the offseason insisting that the team is ready to become a "new version" of itself.

Whether that new version can recreate the old one's dominance is the defining question of the 2026 season. Gronkowski has already delivered his verdict. Mahomes and the Chiefs now have an entire season to answer it.