Arch Manning slide? Scouts name shocking new favorite for No. 1 Draft pick

Arch Manning’s position as a leading contender for the 2027 NFL Draft’s top quarterback spot is becoming increasingly uncertain, with an unexpected name now emerging as the frontrunner.

Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker has enjoyed a remarkable rise, attracting significant attention from NFL scouts after starting the season largely outside the draft conversation.

An ESPN midseason survey of 25 NFL scouts and executives revealed that 17 believe Mestemaker will be the first quarterback selected next April. That's an impressive endorsement and the highest number of votes received by any quarterback since the poll began three years ago.

Notre Dame's CJ Carr finished second with four votes, while Miami's Darian Mensah received three. Oregon's Dante Moore collected just one vote, while Manning failed to receive any.

The latest results represent a dramatic turnaround from August, when Moore dominated the voting with 14 selections. Manning was second with seven, while Mestemaker wasn't considered a serious candidate.

Manning's struggles have contributed to the changing picture. The Texas quarterback has thrown for 1,507 yards, 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions through seven games.

He's also been sacked 19 times, with the Longhorns sitting at 5-2 after an inconsistent campaign.

Although the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning remains highly regarded, his performances haven't yet justified the enormous expectations entering the season.

Drew Mestemaker's remarkable rise puts Arch Manning under pressure

Mestemaker has taken advantage of his opportunity after following head coach Eric Morris from North Texas to Oklahoma State.

The 6-foot-4 quarterback has completed 65.7 percent of his passes for 2,326 yards and 20 touchdowns, recording just six interceptions and taking only eight sacks.

He's averaging approximately 332 passing yards per game, significantly outperforming Manning's 215-yard average. His production has helped Oklahoma State establish itself as one of the country's most dangerous offensive teams.

A defining moment arrived in September when the Cowboys stunned Oregon 39-31. Mestemaker delivered 317 passing yards and two touchdowns, comfortably outplaying Moore in a result that changed how NFL evaluators viewed him. He also showcased his mobility with an extraordinary 75-yard rushing touchdown.

Scouts have been particularly impressed by his arm strength and accuracy. One evaluator described Mestemaker as the obvious choice among current candidates, while another highlighted his size, throwing power and ability to make difficult passes.

However, his limited experience could become a talking point during the evaluation process. Mestemaker never started a varsity high school game at quarterback, although he's expected to finish the 2026 season with 27 career starts.

Meanwhile, other candidates remain in contention. Carr and Mensah could improve their draft positions with strong performances, while Manning still has the option of returning to college to rebuild his reputation.

Former Cincinnati and Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby is another intriguing possibility. His admission that he placed sports bets, including wagers on college football, could complicate his NFL prospects. Nevertheless, scouts haven't ruled out his first-round potential.

Mestemaker has become the quarterback everyone is chasing at the present time. Whether he maintains that advantage through the remainder of the season remains to be seen, but Manning's path towards becoming the first quarterback selected has become considerably more complicated.